Commentary: Will WiMAX disrupt the telco/cable duopoly?

Telephony Online predicts that the maturing WiMAX market and the soon-to-be-available 700 MHz spectrum could help IT companies that “are looking for a way to break the incumbents’ stranglehold on access networks.”Telephony Online predicts that the maturing WiMAX market and the soon-to-be-available 700 MHz spectrum could help IT companies that “are looking for a way to break the incumbents’ stranglehold on access networks.”

Two things are central to TO’s observation:

  • the recently announced Sprint Nextel/Clearwire partnership aimed at deploying a national WiMAX network, and
  • ala recent study called “The WiMAX Explosion,” written by the Boschulte Schnee research group founded by a respected telco research analyst and the former CEO of Nynex Mobile.
  • TO reports:

    If deployed and marketed properly, WiMAX could provide a way of reaching consumers that is much less expensive than today’s wireline networks and can offer true mobile/fixed, voice/data service convergence, the report states. And the technology is maturing at a fortuitous time, when Internet-IT companies are looking for a way to break the incumbents’ stranglehold on access networks and new wireless spectrum is about to be made available by the FCC in its 700 MHz auction, set to begin in early 2008.

    The Boschulte Schnee report suggests that WiMAX makes more sense when deployed nationally–which is exactly what the Sprint Nextel/Clearwire partnership aims to do. That partnership became even more formidable today with Sprint’s announcement that it has also partnered with Google to deliver applications over that network. If WiMAX takes off, Sprint stands to become more than an also-ran behind AT&T, Verizon and Comcast.

    The precise impact of all this on the muni market is not yet clear. Earlier this week, the city of Grand Rapids which is deploying a WiMAX network in partnership with Clearwire, issued a press release applauding the company’s partnership with Sprint Nextel. In it, the city highlighted a number of advantages it expects to result from the partnership (which awaits the approval by the FCC and the Department of Justice). These include:

  • embedded chipsets in computing and consumer electronic devices and other innovative equipment.
  • increased development of WiMAX-based services.
  • enhanced service due to the “anticipated exchange between Sprint Nextel and Clearwire of a 2.5Ghz spectrum”
  • improved sustainability of both companies due to the increased efficiency, shared infrastructure, and reduced development and operating costs
  • increased capital and spectrum available to Clearwire as a result of the partnership is expected will make the city network ” even more sustainable as evidenced by Clearwire’s stock increase of more than eight points on Wall Street.
  • But the partnership also tightens the WiMAX market. Esme recently commented on the Sprint Nextel/Clearwire partnership, noting that the partnership of two former competitors into a single juggernaut kills competition in the WiMAX space. TO seems to take the view that it also introduces a new national WiMAX network as a competitor to players in the long-dominant telco/cable duopoly.

    Where do you this trend going? Could a “tri-opoly” of national networks be emerging–telco/cable/WiMAX? If so, where does 700 Mhz fit in? And what are the potential advantages and disadvantages for munis in this changing scenario? We invite your comments below.

    Click here to read the Telephony Online analysis.

    Click here to read about the Sprint/Google partnership.

    Click here to read the Grand Rapids press release.

    Click here for information about the Grand Rapids WiMAX network.

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    4 Responses to Commentary: Will WiMAX disrupt the telco/cable duopoly?

    1. Karl Edwards July 27, 2007 at 3:55 pm #

      Carol,

      See my response to Esme’s original comments on the Sprint Nextel/Clearwire partnership, which echo Telephony Online’s analysis. I would add that the partnership opens another option not only to the telco/cable duopoly but also to the 3G offerings. Hooray for alternative broadband options!

      Karl

    2. Esme Vos July 28, 2007 at 4:21 am #

      I do not consider a Sprint/Clearwire monopoly an alternative broadband option.

    3. Esme Vos July 28, 2007 at 6:34 am #

      Susan Crawford writes in her blog: “The Sprint network won’t be sold wholesale – something that Google is clamoring for in the 700 MHz auction. The Sprint network may not (we can’t tell yet) allow any device to use it. Sprint is saying that it will provide open standard APIs (application programming interfaces) to people who want to create customized products for browsable devices, so that may open up the application world – right now application developers have to pay 40-50% of their revenue to a carrier in order to have their application be usable on phones that are locked to that carrier’s network. Can’t really tell, though – it’s too early – whether Sprint will ease up on taking a cut. But there’s no guarantee that Sprint will be giving access on a non-prioritized basis to the entire internet.

      Read the full blog post here:
      http://scrawford.blogware.com/blog/_archives/2007/7/27/3123558.html

      That is my other problem with the Sprint WiMAX network – no open access.

    4. Karl Edwards July 29, 2007 at 11:26 pm #

      Esme,

      Susan Crawford’s post reminds me of the British football pundits’ speculation about the effect of the departure of Thierry Henry on Arsenal’s Premier league title chances – pure speculation until the season starts. (I am a Gunners fan, so must admit that I have a personal interest in that debate!)

      Let’s talk about reality: at this point WiFi service providers claim to support open access. They have to in order to win municipal contracts. The reality has been much different at this stage in the industry: a few reseller agreements, but that is about it. How are these agreements any better than the nationwide reseller agreement that Clearwire has with AOL? Furthermore, in the case of one WiFi service provider they have hurt their channel by pricing their retail offering lower than their contracted wholesale offering. Talk about a major blow to open access!

      Don’t get me wrong, I am a proponent of open access. However, let’s not be too quick to assume that WiFi service providers will do any better than Sprint and/or Clearwire in adhering to open access requirements. As with the Premier League, the season is only beginning :)

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