I am staking my shaky reputation as a fortune teller on this bold prediction: Clearwire will ditch WiMAX and move to another wireless platform — LTE. Clearwire’s new CEO, Bill Morrow, says that the company has built a flexible infrastructure that will allow it to change from one to the other quickly and inexpensively. Right now, the company focuses on getting more subscribers and building out a footprint in the markets that matter to its valuation. Once they move to LTE, they become a more attractive acquisition target for Verizon or AT&T.
UPDATE: 8 October 2009
Clearwire says in a filing with the SEC that it can’t move to LTE that soon, certainly not before November 2011 because it signed a market development agreement with Intel. Clearwire also says that it won’t be that cheap to move to LTE.
- – - – - – - -
*Attention vendors and consultants! Make sure you’re included in the vendor directory of the Muniwireless guide on how to get a grant from the NTIA and RUS (send an email to me).
*Join the MuniWireless / Muni WiMAX Linked In Group for networking and discussions.
*Sign up for the MuniWireless / WiMAX newsletter.
*Advertise on Muniwireless.com. Email us for current advertising rates.
Clearwire cannot change from WiMAX to LTE quickly or inexpensively. New access points and user devices will be required. Since Clearwire’s spectrum holdings are only conducive to time division duplex (TDD) technologies, TD-LTE will need to be available and affordable (probably 2012 or beyond) before Clearwire could even develop a transition and roaming plan. Also, I doubt that the FCC would allow Verizon or AT&T to acquire as much spectrum as Clearwire holds, and neither may wish to pick up a fifth band (and an FDD one at that) in addition to the four that they own now.
Clearwire’s CEO claims that all they need to do is a software upgrade. I’d be very curious to see what’s in the agreements that Clearwire has signed with its vendors. Upgrade clauses usually state what the upgrade path looks like (pricing terms, options, etc.).
This reminds me of Omnicom who won a PCS “pioneer” license in NYC in the mid 1990′s, and never really planned to support their own technology in the long term. They ended up being a GSM operator…the bottom line is that the value of the frequency will increase dramatically if it is used for LTE rather then WiMax – why? because it can benefit the other operators. I suspect Clearwire will be bought a very short time after they switch to LTE.
Nobody but Clearwire/Sprint want the 2.5Ghz spectrum, which ultimately will handicap the future of mobile WiMAX unless and until the forum pushes for a 700Mhz/AWS1/White Space spectrum based WiMAX product.
Samsung has made some rumbling about a GSM/WiMAX/Wifi based handheld device that would interest AT&T and other Worldwide carriers.
If the WiMAX Forum pushed for an early release of a 700Mhz and AWS1 product they may get AT&T to bite on a WiMAX/HSPA/WiFi based radio that would allow customers of the HSPA net to switch to a WiMAX Data/Video service and or a WiFi link.
Bets of both worlds and direct competitor with VZW.
Jim A.
what is LTE and how does it better over WIMAX